On the law of one price

We consider the standard discrete-time model of a frictionless financial market and show that the law of one price holds if and only if there exists a martingale density process with strictly positive initial value. In contrast to the classical no-arbitrage criteria, this density process may change its sign. We also give an application to the CAPM.Received: November 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60G44JEL Classification: G13, G11Freddy Delbaen: This research was done during the stay of the author at Université de Franche-Comté.     

我国零售业态及经营模式异化与趋同的演变规律研究

零售业态和经营模式的一定形式和状态,与一个国家或地区的经济体制、经济发展水平、市场供求特征、消费者的收入水平和消费水平等综合因素紧密相关。一定的综合经济因素和经济基础,必然、内在地要求有与之相适应的一定的零售业务格局和经营模式;同时,随着这些综合经济因素的发展变化,也必然、内在地要求零售业态格局和经营模式进一步发展变化,以适应新的总体经济特征对其的要求。在社会综合经济因素和经济基础不断变化与发展的决定和要求下,零售业态和经营模式也必然不断地在“扬弃－异化－趋同－再扬弃－再异化－再趋同”的过程规律中演变与发展。     

我国证券市场行政许可制度之重构

本文阐述了我国证券市场行政许可的设立和实施应遵循的基本原则和价值理念,在分析证券市场行政许可制度现况和存在问题的基础上,对<公司法>、<证券法>修订时行政许可制度的重构提出了相关建议.     

The response of competitors to announcements of bankruptcy: An empirical examination of contagion and competitive effects

We find, like [Lang, L.H.P., Stulz, R.M., 1992. Contagion and competitive intra-industry effects of bankruptcy announcements: An empirical analysis, Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 45–60], that large firm bankruptcies generate a dominant contagion effect. A value-weighted portfolio of competitors' stocks experiences a significant loss of 0.56% in the three days centered around the Chapter 11 announcement. This represents an average loss of $3.32 for all the competitors combined for every dollar lost by the bankrupt firm. In addition, we find that small firm bankruptcies also generate a dominant contagion effect among smaller sized competitors; an equally-weighted portfolio of all competitors has a significant 0.12% drop. In a new approach to separate the contagion and competitive effects, we compare the stock price reactions of competitors who themselves subsequently file for bankruptcy in the next three years (candidates for contagion effect) with those who do not do so (candidates for competitive effect). As expected, candidates for contagion effect experience a significant, negative three-day stock price reaction of −4.68%. However, contrary to expectations, candidates for competitive effect also have a significant, negative return (−0.49%), suggesting that the competitive effect is weak at best since it is dominated by the contagion effect even in this sample. Other procedures to identify candidates for competitive effect generally yield similar findings. Finally, we analyze competitors' stock price reactions based on selected characteristics (e.g., industry concentration, and leverage), with similar results as before. One explanation for the failure to detect a competitive effect is that the impact may already have been incorporated in stock prices prior to the filing for Chapter 11. Consistent with this explanation, we find significant positive stock price reactions by competitor stocks for the hundred days prior to the bankruptcy announcement.     

An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress

Empirical models of a potential failure process that incorporate distress states between the extremes of corporate health and bankruptcy are uncommon. We depict financial distress as a series of financial events that reflect varied stages of corporate adversity. Our intent is to provide information regarding the influence of certain risk dimensions and firm-specific attributes on distressed firm survival over time. Within a theorized distress framework, we utilize the techniques of survival analysis to longitudinally track firms, grouped a priori according to an initial decline in operating cash flows. We find that the event of default has a significant positive association with business failure. Further, we document that the significant accounting covariates tend to change conditional on a firm having progressed through the diverse stages of distress. These findings accentuate the heterogeneous nature of financial distress and potential business failure.     

Law of large numbers and large deviations for dependent risks

We analyse the mathematical structure of models for large risk portfolios, especially for credit risk models. These risk portfolios are modelled using a multivariate mixture model for the dependence structure between the risks. The dependence structures are characterized by latent variables Θ, which play the role of systematic risks. We show that, depending on the choice of the distribution of Θ, there are different asymptotic behaviours for the aggregated risk portfolio, namely law of large numbers/central limit theorem behaviour and large deviation behaviour.     

林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的吻合度分析

林业行政强制制度是我国行政强制法律制度体系的重要组成部分,直接关系到依法治林及林农合法权益保护。我国的林业法律、行政法规和部门规章在木材运输管理、植物检疫和植物新品种保护等三个领域创设了16项林业行政强制行为。通过对林业行政强制立法的实证分析和理论分析得知,除由规章设定的＂通知品种权人缴纳滞纳金＂这一行政强制执行方式以外,我国的15项林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的规定相吻合。《森林法实施条例》对《森林法》中＂有权制止＂这一＂暧昧的制定法＂解释为＂暂扣木材＂,是一种合理的行政解释裁量,应予尊重;而综观《森林法》的全部规定可以发现,森林公安机关可以成为＂暂扣木材＂这一行政强制措施的适格实施主体,这一发现得到了法律实践的验证。     

日本老年医疗护理产业的现状及发展趋势

日本是人口老龄化比较严重的国家,已经形成比较完善的医疗护理、养老居住、老年商品及服务等老年产业。日本政府加强老年医疗护理产业发展政策的研究,完善对该产业服务质量的评价与监督,推进该产业服务体系建设;已将“医疗和护理产业”定为日本经济未来的增长点,计划将医疗护理产业建设成为日本的优势项目,参与国际竞争。日本老年医疗护理产业的做法及发展方向,值得我国借鉴和参考。     

Private equity performance under extreme regulation

This study investigates the impact of excessive regulation on private equity (PE) returns and firm performance. History shows that extreme regulation and prohibition reduce the supply of capital and raise returns (e.g., as with drugs and diamonds). However, for value-added investors such as PE funds, extreme regulation also reduces the quality of capital and fund involvement. The net effect on returns is therefore ambiguous and heretofore not studied. With a new unique dataset, this paper empirically examines the performance of PE investments in Italy when leveraged buyouts are strictly regulated. The data show that extreme regulation reduces not only the supply of capital, but also PE returns and firm performance, as well as the likelihood of an IPO exit.     

我国政府采购法中集中采购的若干问题探讨

政府采购制度是市场经济发展的产物,是公共财政发展的要求。目前,我国政府集中采购方面存在着的突出问题是集中采购的法律地位不明确;集中采购机构概念不清;隶属关系及监管关系混乱;法定职权被弱化;采购范围小。完善集中采购制度,应坚持以集中采购机构为主体的发展方向,明确政府集中采购机构的功能定位,理顺集中采购机构与监管部门的职责关系,并适当扩大集中采购的范围。